Crossroads in Maine: New Poll Shows Overwhelming Majority of Voters Want Susan Collins to Retire as 2026 Decision Looms
A revealing new poll has sent shockwaves through Maine’s political landscape, indicating that a substantial majority of the state’s voters believe longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins should step aside rather than pursue another term in office. The survey results present a stark challenge to Collins, who has represented Maine in the U.S. Senate since 1996 and has already expressed her intention to seek reelection in 2026. This growing sentiment for retirement cuts across party lines and raises significant questions about the future of one of the Senate’s most prominent moderate voices, with potential implications for the broader battle for control of the upper chamber in the next election cycle.
The Poll Results: A Clear Message
According to data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, an overwhelming 71% of Maine voters believe Collins should not seek another term, compared to just 21% who think she should run again. This lopsided result represents a remarkable shift in sentiment toward a senator who has previously enjoyed broad bipartisan support throughout her nearly three-decade career in Washington.
Perhaps most striking is the cross-partisan nature of this sentiment. While Democratic opposition might be expected given the increasing polarization of American politics, the poll reveals that 84% of Democrats, 67% of independents, and—most notably—57% of Republicans believe Collins should retire rather than run again. This majority opposition within her own party constitutes a particularly troubling signal for the 72-year-old senator as she contemplates her political future.
The survey’s methodology and sample size details have not been fully released, but the University of New Hampshire Survey Center is generally regarded as a reputable polling organization with a solid track record in New England politics. The decisive margins across all political affiliations suggest a robust finding that would likely hold up across various sampling approaches.
Collins’ Political Position and Recent History
Susan Collins has long occupied a unique position in the Senate as one of the body’s few remaining moderates in an era of increasing polarization. First elected during the Clinton administration, Collins has built her political brand around independence from strict party orthodoxy, occasionally breaking with Republican leadership on high-profile votes while maintaining enough conservative credentials to retain support from Maine’s more rural, right-leaning regions.
This balancing act served Collins well for much of her career. In 2014, she won reelection by a commanding 37-point margin, demonstrating remarkable cross-party appeal in a state that typically leans Democratic in presidential elections. However, her political standing shifted significantly during the Trump presidency, particularly after her decisive vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 despite allegations of sexual misconduct against him.
That vote alienated many Democratic and independent voters who had previously supported Collins based on her reputation for moderation and women’s rights advocacy. The political repercussions were evident in her 2020 reelection campaign, where she faced the toughest challenge of her career against Democratic former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon.
Despite polls showing Gideon with consistent leads throughout much of the campaign, Collins ultimately prevailed with 51% of the vote—a dramatically reduced margin compared to her previous victories but still a notable achievement in a difficult electoral environment. The race became the most expensive in Maine history, with over $200 million spent by both campaigns and outside groups, reflecting the national significance of Collins’ seat as Democrats sought to regain Senate control.
Collins’ Current Position and Reelection Intentions
Despite the challenging political climate and the new poll showing widespread desire for her retirement, Collins has been clear about her intentions to seek another term. In a November interview with The Washington Examiner, she stated: “I’m focused on the appropriations process, not elections right now, but my intention is to run.”
As a senior member of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, Collins wields significant influence over federal spending decisions, particularly those affecting her home state. This position allows her to deliver tangible benefits to Maine, which has historically been an important factor in her electoral success despite the state’s overall Democratic lean in national politics.
Collins would be 74 years old at the time of the 2026 election and 80 by the end of another six-year term, placing her well within the age range of many current senators. While age alone is unlikely to be a determining factor in her decision-making process, the clear public preference for retirement revealed by the poll may prompt reconsideration of her political future, particularly given the changing nature of Republican politics in the Trump era.
The Changing Political Landscape in Maine
Maine’s political landscape has evolved significantly in recent years, reflecting broader national trends while maintaining distinctive local characteristics. The state has a long tradition of political independence, having elected moderates from both parties along with true independents like current Senator Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats despite his official independent status.
In presidential politics, Maine has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by 7 percentage points in the 2024 election, just 2 points shy of President Joe Biden’s margin in 2020. This relative stability in Maine’s presidential voting pattern is notable considering the national environment shifted approximately 6 points toward Republicans between the two elections.
Meanwhile, Senator King easily won reelection in 2024, demonstrating the continued viability of his independent, moderate-left approach in the state. The race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—a more rural and conservative region that supported Trump—remains unresolved, with Democratic Representative Jared Golden holding a narrow lead in ongoing vote counting.
These results paint a picture of a state that remains receptive to moderate candidates who can appeal across party lines but has become increasingly challenging territory for Republicans identified with the national party’s more conservative wing. Collins has historically succeeded by maintaining sufficient distance from national Republican positions to win over independents and moderate Democrats, but that strategy has become more difficult to execute in an era of heightened polarization.
Maine’s Ranked-Choice Voting System and Its Implications
A crucial factor in any analysis of Collins’ electoral prospects is Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference rather than selecting just one. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated, and their supporters’ second-choice votes are redistributed. This process continues until a candidate achieves a majority.
This system, implemented for federal elections in Maine beginning in 2018, creates a particular challenge for candidates who generate strong opposition from a majority of voters even if they maintain a loyal base of support. Collins narrowly avoided having ranked-choice tabulations come into play in 2020 by securing just over 50% of first-choice votes.
Political analysts suggest that the ranked-choice system could prove decisive in 2026 if Democrats manage to hold Collins below the 50% threshold. In such a scenario, second-choice preferences would likely favor a Democratic or independent challenger over Collins, potentially leading to her defeat even if she plurality of first-choice votes.
The ranked-choice system tends to favor candidates with broad appeal across the political spectrum—historically a Collins strength. However, if the sentiment expressed in the recent poll holds through 2026, with majorities of voters across party lines preferring her retirement, the system could become a significant liability for the incumbent senator.
